R.P. Barr

Peanut butter on the brain

Listening to tonight on NPR’s All Thing Considered, I heard a report about the growing salmonella/peanut butter problem, and Congresswoman Rosa L. DeLauro (D-CT) suggested that food regulation should be taken out of the Food and Drug Administration and put into a new agency.  Why do the news people always go to politicians for thoughts on government?  Politicians know squat about governance.

To understand why things go wrong, simply look at the growth--or lack thereof—of regulatory agencies over the past two (or four) decades and compare that to the growth of the businesses they regulate.

Consultants and geeks like to think automation solves all problems. Computers are wonderful tools, but no computer ever opened a can of peanut butter, or put the cuffs on a bad guy.

If an agency does not have a sufficient number of trained, motivated people, it’s work will be inadequate.  Period.

There is also the matter of better trained managers.  I’m not talking about those temporary workers who arrive at the top, and leave before they know what it is that their agencies actually do.  Professional government managers are promoted primarily for their navigation skills in the halls of bureaucracy.  A surprising number of them are also good managers, but that’s mostly serendipitous.  The system is not geared to training people how to manage people.

We don’t need new agencies, although we could reduce some of the duplication that already exists.  We need agencies that are mission directed and properly funded.

When money is spent, it will go to sexy new programs and not to the old workhorses that have been keeping us safe for generations.  And as the economy gets worse, more things are going to go wrong.  Bet on it.

A foreign affairs agenda for the new administration

At the top of the Obama’s foreign affairs to-do list should be 1) the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan; 2) Israel and the Palestinians; 3) the rise of totalitarianism in Russia; 4) corruption and the Mexican drug wars. 

From Iraq to a hard place 

Iraq is or should be winding down. The Iraqi military is attaining adequacy. I don’t have a great deal of faith in the Baghdad government’s prospects for long term survival, but they may hold it together long enough for us to draw down our forces. 

Afghanistan, on the other hand, has defeated the best armies in the world, from Alexander the Great, to the British at the height of their powers, to the Soviet Union. It is true that we are there in support of the Karzai government, but there are Afghans (especially the Taliban), who do not recognize that regime. To date, the technology of modern warfare has not tipped the scales in our favor. I was impressed by a program that teamed a U.S. Marine Corps officer with a State Department official to provide cows to widows in Fallujah [NPR January 4, 2009]. Programs like that in Afghanistan, properly funded, may accomplish something that guns and bombs cannot. There are some projects there already, such as a soap factory in Kandahar that buys materials from local farmers, but more of these need visible military partners to improve the image of our forces. We also need to stop bombing weddings, etc. 

Another initiative would be to buy up opium from farmers and pay more than the Taliban-linked traffickers do. This would choke off a major source of Taliban and al-Qaeda income as well as give the Afghan farmers a more favorable view of the U.S. Once we have achieved our objectives in Afghanistan, we could offer alternatives to the farmers and wean them away from opium poppies. Meanwhile, we will have reduced the amount of heroin in the world more than any destination-country enforcement has done. 

Lessons from the ghetto 

Meanwhile, we have to tell the Israelis that they are behaving like Nazis. Of course, since they equate Nazism with extermination camps, they would object. However, they have seized property from Palestinians with no compensation, relegated Palestinians to perptual limbo in refugee camps, denied them the right of free travel and commerce, and periodically raided and terrorized Palestinians in their homes actions similar to what were once called “pogroms.” The totality resembles Nazi Germany in the years before their “final solution” was initiated. 

On CNN a week or so ago, an anchorperson asked a Palestinian spokeswoman for her take on the recent Gaza incursion. Among her charges was one that I regard as key. The Israelis did not support moderate Palestinians by allowing them to achieve anything in negotiations, thereby pushing Palestinian public opinion in favor of radicals like Hamas. When the anchorperson turned to an Israeli diplomat for his response, he said that Israel allowed protests over the incursion which made them a more moral regime than Hamas. He did not address the underlying problem of denying concessions in peaceful negotiations. 

The Israeli government has never seriously addressed the return of Palestinians to their ancestral homes or compensation to them for their property as Germany finally did for the Jews who were expelled by the Nazis. Although the settlements in Gaza were dismantled—unilaterally, not in response to negotiations—the settlements in the West Bank have increased. I propose that Israel simply tell the West Bank settlers that Israel is withdrawing all support in two weeks. The settlers can remain by pledging allegiance to the Palestinian state or they can come back to Israel. Of course Israel is going to do no such thing, because the ultimate goal is to insert so many settlers into the West Bank that becomes a de facto Israeli province. Since the state of Israel is the premiere example of successful illegal immigration, hard line planners see the ultimate ejection of Palestinians as do-able. 

Meanwhile, if negotiation and moderate Palestinians are able to show results, then Hamas and other extremists will lose support, and ultimately be reduced to a nuisance status. Indeed the rise of a moderate Palestinian government supported by free trade will transform the extremists into a Palestinian police problem. 

Neo-Stalinism 

Did you see where Russian television held a poll to name the most popular historic figures? Josef Stalin came in third. That was after they redrew the rules and urged voters to consider literary and scientific luminaries. Did you happen to note in December that the Dumas passed new legislation that makes any demonstration against the government treason? Passing any information of any sort to any non-governmental orgainzation that has offices outside of Russia is also treason. Charges of treason no longer qualify for a jury trial either. Add to that the use of gas supplies to bludgeon Russia’s neighbors, plus the invasion of Georgia in order to seize the enclaves of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, and the rise of a new totalitarianism is hard to escape. 

We need to help both Western and Eastern Europe find alternatives to Russian gas, or we will be sucked into a greater confrontation in the near future. 

Mexican refugees 

During 2008, the casualties of the drug wars in Mexico exceeded U. S. casualties in Iraq and Afghanistan. The cities just below our border have the highest murder rates in the world. The Mexican government has not demonstrated an ability to control the criminality and corruption. If the U.S. does not provide real help, we will see a flood of refugees on top of the current illegal immigration flow. And we will be stuck with people who legitimately fear for their lives if they are returned home. 

Some people say that we should slam the door in the faces of Mexican refugees and insist that they manage their own affairs. The United States has not taken that position with any other nation on earth and we cannot do it with one of our two nearest neighbors. Besides that, the violence has already spilled over into cities on this side of the border. 

One move that could improve the situation would be to examine all exports and visitors to Mexico with the intensity that we examine imports and incoming visitors. Why? Where do you think Mexican gangs get their guns? Most are purchased here and then smuggled into Mexico. The Mexican government can’t control the influx of illegal weapons, and it is in our best interests to see it controlled. 

Let’s see how the new administration deals with these four hot points. The ones that Obama misses are sure to come round and bite him on the ass.

Inauguration chill

It’s Inauguration Weekend in the Capitol Region.  The District of Columbia expects between 1.5 and 4 million visitors for the event.  The list of local and state agencies involved in managing this flood is 17 pages long.  I will be working that day, even though most government employees will be off, because someone in my understaffed department has to be around in case a mass disaster spills over into our area.  Even if it does, don’t look for me on the CNN, because my facility is in the remote outer rings of newsworthiness.  (That’s a good thing.)

I am expecting to see that many people will be treated for hypothermia and other cold weather conditions caused by standing outside for four or more hours in freezing weather.  Weatherbug forecasts a high of 35º and clouds.  There will still be mud on the mall from weekend snow.  Especially vulnerable will be the elderly who will come to see this historic event and the young children whose parents want them to be able to say they were there. 

You may remember that William Henry Harrison caught a cold at his inaugeral that developed into pneumonia and earned him the dubious distinction of being the first president to die in office—a month after taking the oath.  His was also an historic election.  Harrison was the last president who was born under British rule in the pre-independence colonies.  At 67, he became the oldest president elected to that time.  And, he was the first president to come to Washington on the train.  Harrison was so pleased at being elected that he rode to the inaugeral on a white horse, without gloves or an overcoat, and then delivered a two hour speech in drizzling, icy rain.  

Obama has a brand-new Cadillac limo with all the creature comforts to transport him to the ceremony.  There’s no word on what he will wear, but we can hope that he speaks for less than three hours. The forecast does not indicate precipitation, but Harrison’s inaugural was on March 4 and this one is in January.

With climate change, March is not as bad in D.C. as it was back in 1841, when Harrison died.  We might consider moving future inaugurals back into warmer early spring weather.  However, another month and half of a lameduck president would be hard to take.  Therefore, I propose that we move the election date from November to September and the inauguration from January to late October or early November.  That way student campaign aides would not have to choose between attending classes and ringing doorbells and stuffing envelopes.  The inauguration crowds could gather in balmy late fall and the holidays would not be under the cloud of transition politics.

Or we could move the inauguration ceremonies to Florida.  Disney could build a mock-up of the Capitol in Orlando.  There are more hotel rooms for visitors there.    Imagine parades and open air concerts where people applaud the performances instead of clapping to keep their hands warm.  Inaugural balls could be held on terraces under the stars.  The new president could still have his motorcade to the White House after flying up in Air Force One on the following day.

Date or location, either would be a change I could believe in.

Bushisms remembered

Soon it will be over.  Gradually, the United States will move toward competence.  Obama will make mistakes, but like Joe Biden once said, the president-elect is articulate.  The V-P-elect was criticized for calling Obama articulate in comparison to other African-Americans.  He should have explained that he meant "articulate" in comparison with other presidential candidates, and used himself as the first example.  The point is that we will see far fewer gaffes from the new administration.

The BBC recently looked back at some of the misstatements that led to the coining of a new word: "Bushism."  Under the new administration, we will have to fall back on Congress for comedy relief.  For nostalgia's sake, I have reprinted the BBC article below (forgive their spelling of "labor," Britain has a surplus of vowels). 

The 'misunderestimated' president?

Wednesday, 7 January 2009

All politicians are prone to make slips of the tongue in the heat of the moment - and President George W Bush has made more than most.

The word "Bushism" has been coined to label his occasional verbal lapses during eight years in office, which come to an end on 20 January.

Here are some of his most memorable pronouncements.

ON HIMSELF

"They misunderestimated me."
Bentonville, Arkansas, 6 November, 2000

 ''I know what I believe. I will continue to articulate what I believe and what I believe - I believe what I believe is right."

Rome, 22 July, 2001

 "There's an old saying in Tennessee - I know it's in Texas, probably in Tennessee - that says, fool me once, shame on... shame on you. Fool me - you can't get fooled again."

Nashville, Tennessee, 17 September, 2002

 "There's no question that the minute I got elected, the storm clouds on the horizon were getting nearly directly overhead."

Washington DC, 11 May, 2001

 

"I want to thank my friend, Senator Bill Frist, for joining us today. He married a Texas girl, I want you to know. Karyn is with us. A West Texas girl, just like me."
Nashville, Tennessee, 27 May, 2004

 

FOREIGN AFFAIRS

"For a century and a half now, America and Japan have formed one of the great and enduring alliances of modern times."
Tokyo, 18 February, 2002

"The war on terror involves Saddam Hussein because of the nature of Saddam Hussein, the history of Saddam Hussein, and his willingness to terrorise himself."
Grand Rapids, Michigan, 29 January, 2003

"Our enemies are innovative and resourceful, and so are we. They never stop thinking about new ways to harm our country and our people, and neither do we."

Washington DC, 5 August, 2004

"I think war is a dangerous place."
Washington DC, 7 May, 2003

"The ambassador and the general were briefing me on the - the vast majority of Iraqis want to live in a peaceful, free world. And we will find these people and we will bring them to justice."
Washington DC, 27 October, 2003

"Free societies are hopeful societies. And free societies will be allies against these hateful few who have no conscience, who kill at the whim of a hat."
Washington DC, 17 September, 2004

"You know, one of the hardest parts of my job is to connect Iraq to the war on terror."
CBS News, Washington DC, 6 September, 2006

EDUCATION

"Rarely is the question asked: Is our children learning?"
Florence, South Carolina, 11 January, 2000

"Reading is the basics for all learning."
Reston, Virginia, 28 March, 2000

"As governor of Texas, I have set high standards for our public schools, and I have met those standards."
CNN, 30 August, 2000

"You teach a child to read, and he or her will be able to pass a literacy test.''
Townsend, Tennessee, 21 February, 2001

ECONOMICS

"I understand small business growth. I was one."
New York Daily News, 19 February, 2000

"It's clearly a budget. It's got a lot of numbers in it."
Reuters, 5 May, 2000

"I do remain confident in Linda. She'll make a fine Labour Secretary. From what I've read in the press accounts, she's perfectly qualified."
Austin, Texas, 8 January, 2001

"First, let me make it very clear, poor people aren't necessarily killers. Just because you happen to be not rich doesn't mean you're willing to kill."
Washington DC, 19 May, 2003

HEALTHCARE

"I don't think we need to be subliminable about the differences between our views on prescription drugs."
Orlando, Florida, 12 September, 2000

"Too many good docs are getting out of the business. Too many OB/GYN's aren't able to practice their love with women all across the country."
Poplar Bluff, Missouri, 6 September, 2004

TECHNOLOGY

"Will the highways on the internet become more few?"
Concord, New Hampshire, 29 January, 2000

"It would be a mistake for the United States Senate to allow any kind of human cloning to come out of that chamber."
Washington DC, 10 April, 2002

"Information is moving. You know, nightly news is one way, of course, but it's also moving through the blogosphere and through the Internets."
Washington DC, 2 May, 2007

OUT OF LEFT FIELD

"I know the human being and fish can coexist peacefully."
Saginaw, Michigan, 29 September, 2000

"Families is where our nation finds hope, where wings take dream."
LaCrosse, Wisconsin, 18 October, 2000

"Those who enter the country illegally violate the law."
Tucson, Arizona, 28 November, 2005

"That's George Washington, the first president, of course. The interesting thing about him is that I read three - three or four books about him last year. Isn't that interesting?"
Speaking to reporter Kai Diekmann, Washington DC, 5 May, 2006

ON GOVERNING

 

"I have a different vision of leadership. A leadership is someone who brings people together."
Bartlett, Tennessee, 18 August, 2000

"I'm the decider, and I decide what is best."
Washington DC, 18 April, 2006

"And truth of the matter is, a lot of reports in Washington are never read by anybody. To show you how important this one is, I read it, and [Tony Blair] read it."
On the publication of the Baker-Hamilton Report, Washington DC, 7 December, 2006

"All I can tell you is when the governor calls, I answer his phone."
San Diego, California, 25 October, 2007

"I'll be long gone before some smart person ever figures out what happened inside this Oval Office."
Washington DC, 12 May, 2008

Police Deportment

You’ve seen the video by now, of the BART cop at the Fruitvale Station in Oakland, California with his knee in the back of unarmed Oscar Grant who is on the ground.  Two other officer are assisting.  The 2-year veteran officer draws his service weapon and shoots Grant in the back.

 You also probably heard of the shooting in tony Bellaire, Texas of unarmed Robert Tolan  in the driveway of his home.  The police said they were investigating the theft of an SUV that had not been reported stolen. 

The good news is that Tolan is expected to recover, mostly.

 There was a time, a brief period, when the old time cops of the post-Miranda Dirty Harry generation were mostly flushed from the system and the new breed of professionals held sway.  These were cops who were tough and who followed the rules.  The culture of law enforcement changed.  Then came 9-11.  Politicians who were eager to prove they were tough on terrorism, but who didn’t have a clue what that meant, encouraged the guardians of the peace to set aside the hard won civil protections and do whatever they had to do.  Departments also hired a lot of new people.  Some hired faster than they could train. 

Meanwhile, the idea that all taxes are bad and all government is too big has led to law enforcement departments to try to show how efficient they are while reducing overtime and making other cost cuts.

 Since you never get more than you pay for, we are seeing more bad police actions—and inactions.  Police shootings are only the bit that grabs our attention on the news.

 A friend recently drew my attention to the death of a foreign woman that the police have declared a suicide.  Sound familiar?

 This time, the woman was from Chile and studying at West Virginia University in Morgantown. Carmen Gloria Sanchez Guitierrez, 36, had been out with friends for dinner in Morgantown.  She left them because she wanted to receive a telephone call from her husband, Hugo Paz, who was back home in Coihaique, Chile.  Not long afterwards, she turned up at a stranger’s home in nearby Star City in distress and asking for help.  The resident called 9-1-1, but when Guitierrez heard that the police were coming, she ran away.  Her body was found in the river four days later.

 Her husband says that she was afraid of something and wanted to return home. 

 Toxicology was negative, and there were no marks on the body showing trauma.  Four days in the water, however, might erase some marks.  The police conclusion was that she threw herself from a bridge into the river.  Locals say that the current would not take a body to the place where she was found.

Predictions past and future

Last January, I made some predictions.  I would like to present a scorecard to show how well I did, but most of what I said is untrackable.

 

I said that the economy would not improve before Halloween.  It didn’t.  It also didn’t improve after Halloween, and it’s not looking much better for next Halloween either.  However, the problem seems to be that institutions with money are not lending that money.  I predict that when that situation changes, it is going to change in a hurry.  Wall Streeters have always displayed a herd instinct.  The money is piling up and it is burning holes in corporate pockets.  When the accumulation reaches a tipping point, the next favorable sign to come along will trigger a deluge of lending, and the regulators will be hard pressed to stave off inflation.  It could happen this year or next.  Even at that, it will take some time to trickle down to the rest of us, but it will come.

 Calling what any idiot could have forecast, I was also right that the Democrats would dodge tax issues and the Republicans would call for more cuts.  Nobody is proposing an improved tax scheme (except me in “A Tax on the System” October 24, 2007). 

As expected, there have been no proposals to deal with the troubling trend of rising populations in coastal areas and declining populations in the center of the country.

 I predicted more Muslim-on-Muslim violence in the world and, sadly, that continues.  Violence in the horn of Africa has also increased.  Arabs and others in the Islamic world will not know any great success until they learn not to hate each other.

 I said that Bush’s policies for protecting the United States from terrorism were not effective. Both Pentagon and intelligence officials have announced that our risks are increasing.  As always, those with the will to attack us lack the means, and those with the means don’t want to.  Should that change, we will be hit.  Our defence is electronic snooping and plotters who talk too much.  Should terrorists learn to communicate in person only, and to keep their plans tightly controlled, then we will be hit.

 My predictions of an increase in the crime rate have come to pass.  Overall crime rates have dropped, but the murder rate among African-American young men has shot up, and New York City recently had five bank robberies in one day—the first time that has happened in memory.  Watch for more property crimes including shoplifting and more domestic violence.

 My prediction for health crises have been bourne out, but only on a low level, so I can’t count that in the win column.

 Finally, I predicted that Barak Obama would be elected president.  (Actually, I said that we would have either our first black or female president, which gave me considerable wiggle room.  But why not claim credit when the chance comes?  There are always plenty of opportunities to take the blame for getting things wrong.)

 I was heartened to see that Obama adopted my stand on abortion (“Abortion Kills Reason” January 6, 2008).  It is possible that he came up with the idea on his own.  I certainly don’t think that he is one of my readers.  But, someone who is a reader may know someone who knows someone, etc. and may well have passed my discussion along.  Obama came very close to quoting the blog.

 In 2009, we will see Joe Biden’s prediction come true.  The new president will be tried by the world’s bad actors.  They would test any new president—look at Bush and 9-11—but Obama seems like such a nice guy, they’re going to want to find out how nice. 

Israel jumped into Gaza because they weren’t sure how much support they would get from the new president.  Obama might (gasp) be even handed in the Palestinian issues.  –I will take this occasion to reiterate my mantra:  The ones who have the power to make peace are the ones who have the power.

 On NPR today, I heard about a Marine officer who is assigned to a cows-for-widows program in Afghanistan.  That sort of iniative will be of more value in the long run than bombs.

Russia has cut off the natural gas to Ukraine.  Russia wants to raise prices on the gas they buy from Turkmenistan and other former Soviet states at blackmail prices.  Russia also does not want Ukraine to raise the prices it charges for use of Ukraine's pipeline to the west, and it wants the lease on the Crimean naval base extended in perpetuity, which Ukraine does not want to do.  Look for more Russian aggression in 2009.  Hopefully, it won't be military.

 With the Republicans leaving office, we will be learning about more executive branch misdeeds.  We will also see the kind of rabid dog attacks that we saw the right wing employ against the Clintons.  The difference is that Obama is being careful—so far--not to give them any ammunition.

 All in all, 2009 is shaping up to be another interesting year.