R.P. Barr

Drugs and terror

Once upon a time, I was one of a trio of trainers who went to Cameroon to review what the United States had learned about drug interdiction.  It was my first trip to Africa—or off the North American continent—and I was impressed.  During my final address to the class, I held up a magazine that I had picked up for the flight over.  It was US News & World Report with a cover story about “History’s Hidden Turning Points.”  It described 9 such points and listed 24 better known milestones.  I pointed out to the class that none of the events involved Africa or illegal drugs.  “No-one,” I predicted, “will be able to write a similar article 50 years from now without including Africa and illegal drugs.  My hope for you,” I said, “is that in that article, Africa and drugs will not be linked together.”  

 Time has passed and my prediction becomes more and more certain.  From South Africa to Nigeria to Somalia and Egypt, Africa is affecting the world in multiple ways.  Drugs, meanwhile, are fueling revolutions and radicals wherever trafficking takes hold, corrupting entire countries.  There is no separation between organized crime and political events.  Where there is money there is corruption.

 Now, while the media and politicians are beating up on the intelligence community for failing to intercept one no-profile terrorist wannabe, the intel folk have apparently missed a bigger situation, and one that is scarier than a few grams of explosive in someone’s skivvies.

 On January 13, Reuters revealed a report by a Homeland Security official that apparently went nowhere in government circles—hence the leak.  The report says that Latin American drug traffickers have a fleet of unregistered jet aircraft as big as 727’s that transport cocaine to West Africa.

 The cocaine is smuggled into Europe and Asia, generating money to finance political unrest on both ends of the air routes.  The big question is: what is carried on the return trip from Africa?

A Boeing 727 can carry 10 tons of cargo.  And, no-one is monitoring the traffic across the South Atlantic.  They land at unused airstrips.  The West African drug gangs generally have the local police outgunned.  Guinea Bissau, for instance, does not even have any aviation radar to know what is in their air space.  Guinea Bissau had some awareness of what was happening on the ground, and both the nation’s president and military chief-of-staff were assassinated in a dispute over the trade.

 The gangs often call themselves al-Qaeda and since they need a network to move the drugs across the continent and into Europe, a real connection with the terrorist group is probable.

 The DEA orchestrated a sting in Ghana where three men from Mali were arrested on drug trafficking charges and accused of using their smuggling operation to support al-Qaeda, its local affiliate AQIM, and the Colombian FARC.

 Meanwhile, many of the planes are known to depart from Venezuela, whose president, Hugo Chavez rails against the United States and refuses to allow the DEA to work there.

When the planes return to this hemisphere, they carry unidentified passengers and unexamined cargo.  When you then consider how porous our southern border is, and how many miles of unguarded coastline we have in Southern California and the Gulf Coast, well, any thinking person should be concerned.

We need to stop letting our national defense be driven by contractor and consultant profits.  We don’t need more expensive machines.  We need more people at the borders and overseas who speak the local languages.  And we need to treat the illegal drug trade as the danger it is with completely integrated and coordinated federal, state and local enforcement.

And,  since the nominee to head the TSA has just dropped out of the running, let me add that we also need TSA employees to be unionized.  A worker who avoids making mistakes out of fear is of less value than one who will go the extra mile because he knows that he is supported.

Georgia on My Mind

Because it happens so rarely, I would like to point out that I was right about the South Ossetian casualty figures.  Russia has released a confirmed count of 133—not the 2,000 that they initially claimed.  Russia has also refused to withdraw from Georgia.  The Kremlin has claimed “buffer zones” around South Ossetia and Abkhazia as well as a position on the primary East-West highway and the port city of Poti.  The unstated goal of this policy is to strangle the economy of Georgia and force a regime change.  Note that a recent train carrying oil to the west was blown up, ostensibly by a mine—like it was an accident.

 The U.S. has sent a destroyer to bring humitarian supplies into the port of Batumi, some miles south of Poti.  It remains to be seen whether the U.S. and Western Europe will find ways to support the Georgian economy through air lifts and detouring the infrastructure around the Russian choke points.

 Meanwhile, foreign investors have withdrawn more than $16 billion from the Russian economy.  Let’s hope that more will follow.  Russia has never been hospitable to investment.  Well, not after the investment begins to pay off anyway.  Cash and expertise were always welcome initially.  But, once the enterprise began to show a profit, foreigners were muscled out of the way—and occasionally murdered.  Russian courts are notoriously chauvinistic.

It is all unnecessary.  If Russia would only treat its neighbors with respect and fairness, they would become Russian allies more often than not.  Why?  Because Russia is the big dog in the neighborhood and cannot be ignored.

 Remember when Castro and Cuba were in their heyday?  Mexico sought to distance itself from the United States and Jamaica became downright hostile.  But, without any shots being fired, our neighbors concluded that friendly relations with the elephant on their doorstep was more beneficial than alienation. 

So it would be with Georgia and all the rest if they didn’t have to worry every night that they would wake up in the morning with Russian tanks in the street outside.

 It’s too bad that Russian power brokers believe in a zero sum world in which they and cannot win unless someone else loses and that they can only find friends at the point of a gun.

Staying afloat--shipping and the economy

While most of the talk about the economy concentrates on home foreclosures and the rest concerns jobs and the stock market, there are two areas that are vital to our pocketbooks and our futures. One is agriculture which I am not going to discuss—at least not now—and the other is shipping.

Most of the things we buy are either made abroad or have foreign components. Meanwhile, the overall well-being of our American economy depends on exporting U.S. goods to other countries. Remember that class in high school when the teacher spent five minutes discussing “balance of trade?” Nobody else does either—but it affects our life styles and careers. What the teacher did not discuss was that trade doesn’t happen if the transportation industry and infrastructure don’t hum along together like a ten-speed racing bike on a downhill run.

If public money had not been spent on airports, seaports, railroads and highways we would still be living like Davy Crockett.

Let’s get to the point. We’ve all heard about the potential threat of terrorism to our seaports and the scare stories about nukes in shipping containers, but have you heard that serious accidents, including the total loss of ships has increased 270 per cent in the past decade—727 incidents in 2006, at least 914 in 2007 according to the International Union of Marine Insurance. These are real losses—human and environmental as well as property--not political fear-mongering. And, as insurance rates go up, so do the prices you pay at the supermarket and Wal-Mart.

The weak dollar has meant a surge on U.S. exports. This is a good thing, and free trade agreements mean that American exporters aren’t hampered by foreign duties. –Except that U.S. products have to be put into steel containers or—for things like grain—into bulk-carrying ships. And, the shortage of containers has pushed the price of shipping one to Hong Kong, for instance, from $300 last fall to $850 last month [Newport News, VA Daily Press, February 22]. American shippers often have to pay a premium on top of that charge just to get a container to pack. The container shortage hurts us when we sell and hurts us when we buy. Sounds like inflation, doesn’t it?

There is also a shortage of ships. China is the big consumer these days. U.S. manufacturers in search of cheaper labor have relocated much of their capacity to China. China, meanwhile, requires more raw materials than it can obtain in Asia. South American iron ore is the example given in a Wall Street Journal article of last October 22. At that time the cost per day of a bulk cargo ship carrying iron ore from Brazil to China was $180,000 per day versus $65,000 per day only a year earlier. With ships often waiting offshore as much as two weeks to get into the crowded Brazilian ports, the result is that while iron ore costs $60 a ton to buy, it costs $88 a ton to ship it to Asia. Of course, once the cheap labor is done with it, the finished products have to be shipped again to reach us.

The industry has developed a concept called “project cargo.” This refers to freight handlers or brokers putting together packages that contain all of the shipping elements that previously had to be contracted for separately. This ensures that projects involving goods from multiple sources, bulk cargo, or unusally-sized objects will have coordinated transportation and arrive at the right place at the right time. That’s a good thing, too, isn’t it? Logistics Management reports that the ship shortage extends to specialty ships that handle non-standard freight, and a shortage of personnel to operate them. That has pushed the prices for using specialty ships to as much as 50% higher than the cost to operate them.

Over and above the already inflated shipping prices, carriers are shifting more of the costs they used to absorb themselves onto the shippers. Things like weather delays and surcharges for stowage below decks are now added to the transportation costs.

Cargo is also often travelling further than it did in the past to reach facilities where it can be handled quickly and at lower costs. The additional fuel used in shipping something to Houston instead of Los Angeles is considerable, especially when it has to be shipped overland back to the West Coast for delivery. Ports in Mexico are also expanding to take cargo overflow from California.

Everything we touch is affected by the inflation in ocean shipping, from crude oil to fancy olives. The issues overlap and must be addressed with an all encompassing program if we are to do anything about inflation. Bailing out mortgage lenders and scattering tax rebate crumbs is not nearly enough.

A new strategy: protection by headline

"U.S. Customs: 100% Scanning by 2012" That was the headline. Are you impressed? I was. Almost.

Then, I read the story that revealed the scanning of cargo containers they were talking about was for radiation only.

Back in the mid-1990's I traveled to a country that shall remain nameless that had--at that time or previously--nuclear weapons and materials. The U.S. government wanted safeguards that these materials--if they were still there or were imported--would be detected should anyone try to export them. I found that radiation monitors--which are lunchbox-sized cases with detectors and alarms inside did not exist at land border or seaport locations. However, they did have them at airport cargo warehouses. No-one at these locations could remember the alarms ever going off, or remember what they were supposed to do if they did. The boxes themselves appeared not to have been opened for calibration or other inspection for a long time--or so I judged based on the accumulation of bird droppings on the boxes.

I feel sure that this country has installed more radiation monitors since my visit--that was the point of the survey, after all. But, I am not at all confident that their levels of training and maintenance have improved.

Moreover, all radiation monitors can be defeated by proper radiation shielding. If the material is placed in a lead container of sufficient thickness, it cannot be detected. The most worrisome aspect of this fact is that weapons-grade nuclear materials emit less radiation and are much easier to shield than, say, the materials in your dentist's x-ray machine.

Still, I heartily commend the effort to have portal scanners everywhere that international cargo is handled. I would like to ask why it has taken so long. We are running a foot race with an unseen competitor, trying to get our protections in place before he decides to attack. Do you think the bad guys see headlines like this one and say, "Damn, I won't have my bomb ready before 2013"?

I would also like to bring up an uncomfortable fact. Terrorists are not likely to waste precious manpower and resources on weapons unless they have experience with that type of weapon. How embarrassing to expose an entire terrorist network on a bomb that fizzles. Therefore, until I hear of terrorists exploding radioactive or nuclear devices closer to their bases, I am not going to lose sleep worrying about them shipping those devices over here.

What does concern me are conventional explosives, chemical and biological weapons. These have been explored or used by al-Qaeda and friends. These are also weapons that will not be picked up by the 100% scanning that will be in place by 2012. X-raying 100% of incoming containers would be helpful, but x-rays can be defeated by clever packing. Nothing is better than having trained, motivated personnel open up the boxes and look inside. It doesn't have to be 100% of all boxes, but it has to be more than we're doing now.

There are simply not enough people to do the job the way it should be done, and the ones who are there are hampered by low morale. National security cannot be had on the cheap. Headlines and dumb luck will not protect us for very long.

Looking ahead

Lets peer at the tea leaves for a look at the year ahead.

I’m not an economist (not even close), but those who are think that we are sliding down a slippery slope and should not look for things to improve before Halloween. You might note that the Euro was worth 83¢ when Bush took office and now it is worth $1.45. (If you’re keeping track of my ramblings—first, get a life—or you might refer back to “It’s the stupid economy” October 22, 2007.) Aside from assigning blame, the candidates will probably not address the declining dollar.

They might try my taxation plan (“A Tax on the System” October 24, 2007)—he said with a laugh. In reality, look for the Democrats to dodge tax issues and the Republicans to call for cuts.

Do you know why canaries were used in coal mines? Because they insisted on behaving normally regardless of air quality. They would continue to sing until they fell off their perches and died. Of course, the canaries died while there was still enough oxygen for the miners to evacuate. Here above ground, we let the canaries run the government and by the time they keel over, it will be too late for the rest of us.

USA Today reported that fully one-third of counties in the United States have more deaths than births. Thanks to relocations, including immigration, not all of these counties are losing population, but it is still a troubling trend. One of the counties discussed has been losing population every year for the last 35 years. I have long advocated a national zoning board that would ease congestion in coastal cities by restricting commercial development there and moving that development to the center of the country where it is needed. Watch for the presidential candidates to not mention this plan or any other for correcting the imbalance.

Remember when a Saudi Arabian court sentenced a rape victim to 200 lashes for immoral behavior (she went out without a male escort)? The world press was outraged (the press loves outrage)—except for Al Jazeera who didn't mention the case at all. This news outlet based in Qatar was founded in large part to attack Saudi Arabia. Over the years, it has done just that. But, now, with Shia Iran seeking hegemony over the Middle East, Sunni Qatar is bonding with their coreligionist Saudi neighbors, and curbing their outspoken outlet. Watch for this religious divide to heat up over the coming year. (reference "Run to Iran" October 5, 2007)

Did you shrug off the post-election violence in Kenya? Just another example of African internecine violence? Maybe. But, al-Qaeda has long had its sights on sub-Saharan Africa. They moved into Somalia back in the 1990’s with Iranian backing (even though al-Qaeda is Sunni-based, Iran supported the creation of Moslem theocratic states). Al-Qaeda has since sponsored and encouraged uprisings among Islamists in the countries below the desert belt. Nigeria, for instance, and Cote d’Ivoire. They bombed U.S. embassies in Kenya and Tanzania. Al-Qaeda is fighting a different war than the one we are fighting, and unless we get on the same page, there is going to be a lot more hell to pay.

Meanwhile, the Bush Administration is opposing $400 million for seaport security in a bill passed by the House. In fact, Bush people have said that they want to kill all counter-terrorism funding. Let the cities and states pay for their own protection. If you don’t lose your job to the falling economy, you might want to stock up on fire extinguishers, gas masks and other terrorist protection gear.

As more communities tighten their restrictions on illegal immigrants, look for a rise in crime. Those who are not caught and returned to the home countries are not going to return voluntarily. The stress of fewer jobs due to our faltering economy coupled with fewer legal opportunities due to local enforcement is going to push some in the underground community to do bad things. Only the murders and rapes will make the headlines. Increases in shoplifting will lead to higher prices for the rest of us and may even drive some stores out of business. Burglaries, robberies, carjackings, etc. should all increase.

The Alabama State Department of Public Health found 212 workers at a chicken processing plant tested positive for tuberculosis. Another 165 workers were being tested at the time the article was written in December. Two of the workers were found to have active TB, which means the disease could be spread by airborne bacteria as they talked, coughed or sneezed while plucking and cutting up the chicken for your table. Hispanic immigrants make up a large proportion of poultry, meat and other food processing workers. They come from places where diseases like TB are inadequately addressed. They are less likely than U.S. born workers to have health insurance or to seek treatment for illnesses in the early stages. So, look for more health crises to occur in 2008.

Since this is an election year, let’s also look at the Iowa returns. Who won in the caucuses is not as significant to me as the voter turnout. Iowa is a red state, a Republican state. Yet, twice as many Democrats voted in the caucuses as Republicans. That is the lesson. Republicans are not motivated by their candidates. This would indicate a major Democratic win in November if not for the perennial ability of Democrats to shoot themselves in the foot. Still, I predict that we will see our first black or female president in 2009. We might even see our first Hispanic vice-president (I think Bill Richardson would be a good addition to anyone’s ticket).

I hope the year goes well for you.

Port traps

According to Fairplay.com, the Russian Duma (lower house of the Russian legislature) has begun drawing up new legislation concerning Russian ports. What with global warming and all, these ports are more open to shipping than ever, so now is the time to expand their capacity. Less than half of all sea borne imports to Russia are currently offloaded in Russian ports. Shippers currently make use of port facilities in Finland, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. The goal of the new legislation is to increase the amount of imports to 90%.

If the Russians can do this on their own, more power to them. However, odds are that they will need foreign partners. To underscore this need, they are legislating that no foreigner can own a port or part of a port facility, although foreigners, including foreign companies, may enter into leases of up to 49 years. So, with no equity, foreign investors will be expected to develop the ports and hope to see a return on their investments before the lease expires. However, judging from how Russians have treated foreign partners in the past, the lease will be certain to expire--or be found invalid--before the profits will accrue to non-Russians.

In a corrupt system, binding contracts and official assurances are worthless. My advice is to wait until an independent court system operates in Russia that gives foreigners (or even ordinary Russians) an even chance.